1
From the newsletter (sign-up if you want it sooner): Orange looks like Europe’s strongest-performing incumbent telco this quarter, pairing robust financial growth with bold acquisitions and AI investments. While rivals are improving through restructuring, the French firm appears to have greater scale, momentum, and ambition.
Maybe it is just about how much they share in their quarterly statements, but, on the face of it, Orange is the standout performer (so far) among the tier-one European telcos that have reported their financial figures to June 30. It is the one with the biggest organic growth and the boldest strategic direction, at least. On the latter, those new deals look smart: €4.25bn to take full control of MasOrange in Spain (closed, June); €5.6bn for part-control of SFR in France (pending; expected late 2027); €1.3bn for French fiber-optic provider Scorefit (closed July); a €3bn joint-venture with Kiwi investment firm Morrison to build sovereign AI in France (announced yesterday, June 27).
But Orange’s numbers are strong, too: revenue growth of 3.5%, plus faster EBITDAaL growth of 5%; 30% higher organic cash flow (up €0.5bn to €2.2bn); upgraded guidance for the year (EBITDAaL growth of over 4%; organic cash flow of about €4.3bn). Its scores in Africa and the Middle East are striking: 14% higher revenue, 16%-higher EBITDAaL – hard numbers to find among western telco (although Vodafone has also posted double-digit growth in Africa). The criticism is its debt, up €13.2 billion in the quarter to €35.7bn – when interest rates are high and telco returns are difficult. But it can be explained away, to an extent, because of the MasOrange deal (€4.25bn).
And also just because it is borrowing to buy scale and growth. From a quarterly review, it looks like the best-placed European incumbent – with momentum and money, and this expansive strategy. Compare Telefónica and Vodafone, which have just posted scores for the same period, and its speculative buys make it stand out – in a European market that is improving, but where telcos are still mostly getting their houses in order (possibly with an idea to build new bunkers and extensions). Telefónica’s results are good, too; it is growing EBITDA (plus 2.7% to €2.9bn; plus 6.4% as reported figure,) and operating cash flow (plus 2.9% to €1.3 billion; plus 6.7% as reported figure).
Brazil is excellent. Spain is healthy. Germany is a drag. Net debt continues to fall (by 8.4% to €25.3bn). But revenue was flat, basically – 0% at constant rates to €8.3bn (plus 3% reported). Its decision to raise its cash guidance rather than its revenue outlook says where it thinks its progress lies. Meanwhile, Vodafone, with even more house-clearing, is also reasserting its buoyancy: organic service revenue rose 5.2%, Germany returned to growth, every segment expanded, full-year guidance is at the higher-end (adjusted EBITDAaL of €13.3bn; free cash flow of €2.9bn). All meaningful results – just, quarter for quarter, more about extracting better performance from simpler business.
Comparison with the big three in the US is tempting. T-Mobile grew service revenue by 9% and adjusted EBITDA by 12%; AT&T added 646,000 fiber and FWA customers; Verizon generated $6.5bn in cash flow, and signed a $1bn DCI deal with Google. Europe is heading the same way, just with more road to go. Orange, Telefónica, and Vodafone are talking less about subscriber revenues and more about group profits, cash flows, returns. But while T-Mobile is a commercial benchmark for high-end 5G, AT&T has developed a fiber-led growth story, and Verizon is working with AI-factories and factory-factories, most Europeans are just coming up for air after years of inter-telco jostling.
As a quarterly snapshot (and really not very much more), amid a backdrop of industry-wide restructuring and consolidation, Orange looks the closest to properly breathing again. We’ll see what DT has to say next week.
