SpaceX expects to launch “5G-quality” mobile satellite services to smartphones in the first half of 2028, but it is undecided about how, and if, to build a terrestrial wireless network.
Speaking at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference last week, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen dismissed the idea that mobile is a “distraction” for the company, given that it is focused on investing in satellite broadband and AI infrastructure, the latter on the ground and in space.
SpaceX plans to deploy a new constellation of direct-to-device (D2D) low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites throughout next year, via Starship, and start mobile satellite services in the first half of 2028. The timing for service availability is later than the previous target of end-2027 that was stated on the company’s earnings call in early August.
“We’ll be able to turn on a service that’s completely differentiated from anything out there,” he said, noting that it will be a “full 5G quality service,” unlike the first version, “text-only” service offered by T-Mobile.
He was less bullish about rolling out a terrestrial network, which would better position it to take on US wireless carriers on their home turf.
SpaceX management revealed last month the intent for Starlink mobile to compete head-on with US carriers, rather than just complement their services by filling in remote coverage gaps. Their plan is to deploy rooftop small cells, which they called femtocells, alongside Starlink broadband satellite dishes, which has been greeted with skepticism and derision.
However, Johnsen did not mention the “f” word (femtocells) or small cells but said the company is keeping its options open and has time “to figure out exactly if there are other assets we need related to it.”
SpaceX can launch Starlink mobile services in the US using the midband spectrum it acquired from EchoStar, he said.
“We’ve got the spectrum where we can go turn on service … And it has direct-from-space and terrestrial capability already FCC approved. So if we need to, we can stand up terrestrial solutions to put the terrestrial piece in place, too, or we could work with existing carriers. We’re open to a lot of different ways to do it, but we’re marching down that path in the US,” he said.
Reading between the lines, his comments suggest SpaceX is still hoping to strike a deal with a carrier to run services as a mobile virtual network operator, even though the big three have said they are not interested. Also, not mentioning small cells and keeping options open sounds like backtracking from the idea. Whatever the company is thinking, it is not ready to share the network plan or doesn’t have a clear one.
Wireless war of words
SpaceX took a lot of flak last week from AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon executives on the investor conference circuit who dismissed its planned mobile satellite service as merely complementary to what they do and not any kind of serious competitive threat. They argued that basic physics prevents a satellite-based mobile service from matching terrestrial cellular in performance and indoor coverage.
T-Mobile CFO Peter Osvaldik said the wireless industry was laughing at SpaceX’s femtocell strategy and that “the physics just don’t allow direct-to-cell to be a substitute product.”
Verizon CEO Dan Schulman said Starlink is “not a direct competitor” and that it “just can’t compete without a terrestrial network in urban and suburban.”
AT&T Chairman and CEO John Stankey didn’t call out Starlink by name but said “the notion that you can simply serve mobility from outside is just not how the networks are architected today. And the notion that somehow really small cells are going to somehow fix that problem, randomly deployed, that’s not going to fix that problem.”
SpaceX’s Johnsen got in a few digs at the carriers too and charged that the wireless industry “just hasn’t innovated for decades.”
“The service you have is largely the same … Now [with Starlink], you’re talking about being able to come to market with a product that shouldn’t have dead zones, can have global roaming, you can go anywhere you need to with it. And that’s pretty magical, especially if you’re charging same or slightly less than a service that doesn’t have any of those things,” he said.
He further said that is why the three big operators “were a little concerned about us” and disparaged their satellite joint venture by labeling it a “cartel maybe.”
“I’m not a lawyer, and I’ll let them figure that out. But the point being, I think that the whole industry is seeing that we have the ability to deliver a service that will be really compelling for people,” said Johnsen.
It all rides on Starship
SpaceX’s satellite D2D ambitions rely on Starship, its reusable, heavy load rocket that will take the LEO satellites into space. The launch vehicle supports SpaceX’s Starlink broadband, D2D as well as orbital AI data center satellites.
Johnsen said the next launch for Starship later this month, Flight 14, will be a “revenue-generating flight.” That is, it will be carrying production “V3” satellites for Starlink broadband. This follows the test flight that deployed demo V3 satellites in July.
The next-generation D2D satellites are based on the V3 model. “We’re going to change the payload out and be able to deliver starting next year … satellites for building out our network for D2D mobile,” he said.
