Outgoing T-Mobile CFO Peter Osvaldik categorically rejected the idea that SpaceX’s Starlink satellite-to-smartphone service can be a serious competitor to its 5G network and is not convinced the company has a solid plan to do so.
Speaking at Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference on Wednesday, he shot down the various ways Starlink has entertained taking on wireless carriers, which escalated with SpaceX’s mega IPO this year, and ridiculed its slapdash approach.
“Imagine if we as a management team over the course of two months changed the strategy to how we’re going to roll out a wireless network like a dozen times. You would laugh us out of the room and kick me out of the management team, appropriately so,” he said.
Osvaldik pointed to the early notion that direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity from low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites could replace terrestrial cellular networks. But basic physics rules out that scenario.
One of the limitations of satellite D2D is poor indoor coverage. Signals coming from satellites that are 350km above Earth lose strength by the time they reach handsets, so that the connection cannot penetrate buildings.
“The physics just don’t allow direct-to-cell to be a substitute product … You can’t get through buildings, walls. You can’t even get through a Tesla windscreen,” said Osvaldik.
Another idea is to operate as a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) running on a carrier’s terrestrial network. Here, Starlink has met a wall of resistance from AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon who are not open to an MVNO arrangement. They are also adamant that there is no so-called backdoor route via acquisition of another MVNO for regulatory reasons.
Building its own network is another option. But Starlink does not have the “path to the right level of spectrum assets,” he said.
And then there’s the femtocell strategy. This is the latest plan that “everybody in the know is laughing at and has betrayed the fact that there is no strategy there,” he said.
SpaceX revealed during its first earnings call last month that it intends to compete directly with US wireless carriers using the spectrum it acquired from EchoStar to build a hybrid terrestrial-satellite network. The terrestrial part would be made up of rooftop small cells, an idea that has been widely criticised by wireless industry experts.
Osvaldik said T-Mobile estimates that it would take “over a billion femtocells to have the equivalent outdoor coverage with all the interference problems [and] backhaul problems.”
“[Starlink] is not a competitive threat from a wireless perspective at all,” he concluded.
Starlink still looms
However, when it comes to satellite broadband, it’s a different story. Starlink broadband doesn’t have the same challenges as mobile D2D because it uses “different spectral assets and external powered antennas.”
Osvaldik downplayed the competition from Starlink for its 5G fixed wireless access and fiber, because the satellite operator is focusing on a different segment of the broadband market than T-Mobile.
“We’re going to continue to see [Starlink] being successful going from the deep rural into suburban fringe, while simultaneously we’re attacking from urban into more dense and midsized suburban,” he said.
Verizon CEO Dan Schulman also dismissed Starlink’s competitive threat in broadband and D2D, speaking at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference on Wednesday.
“We’ve seen zero discernible impact on our broadband growth from any LEO satellite provider, including Starlink. The more I dive into the physics of satellite … the more convinced I am, whether it be broadband to the home or direct to device, that satellite is a complementary service … over the medium to long term, not a direct competitor. They just can’t compete without a terrestrial network in urban and suburban,” said Schulman.
T-Mobile has an exclusive partnership with Starlink for mobile satellite D2D services that lasts until at least the end of this year, and the carrier has not disclosed when the exclusivity expires.
The carrier has said that use of the mobile satellite service is very low, accounting for 0.0002% of its network usage.
T-Mobile along with AT&T and Verizon are considering working together to use satellite to fill rural coverage gaps. They agreed in principle to create a satellite joint venture to pool some spectrum resources and create a platform to engage with satellite operators. If they agree on definitive terms, the JV could be a model for keeping the relationship with satellite operators as a wholesale partnership and potentially head off direct competition.
